Who will be India's next President?

Who will be India's next President? From the presidential poll process and front-runners to the numbers game and possible scenarios – we answer all your questions about the crucial election set to take place next month.

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India’s President does not exercise executive powers, but all executive decisions are carried out in her name. She is required by the Constitution to act on the advice of the council of ministers led by the Prime Minister. But the President can ask the government to reconsider actions and offer advice. In matters of legislation, for example. So, it would be wrong to say that the role is only ceremonial or that the President is a mere figurehead or rubber stamp.

Presidents like Pranab Mukherjee have been quite assertive, especially while dealing with mercy petitions from death row convicts. One of the most crucial roles of the President is seen when no party is able to get a parliamentary majority in a national election.

So, the presidential election is crucial, and you should care about it. The election is indirect, but the result does indicate how much popular support both camps, the government and the opposition, have in the country. On your mind could be several key questions, from the poll process to front-runners to the numbers game, and to possible scenarios. But first let’s get some important dates out of our way. The notification for the election of India’s 16th President was issued on June 15. The poll will take place on July 18. The counting of votes, if needed, will be done and the result declared on July 21. Voting will not happen in the case of a consensus candidate. The tenure of current President Ram Nath Kovind ends on July 24.

• The President is elected by members of the Electoral College comprising elected members of both Houses of Parliament, and elected members of the Legislative Assemblies of all states and the National Capital Territory of Delhi and the Union Territory of Puducherry.
• This means nominated members of the Rajya Sabha and the Lok Sabha or Legislative Assemblies of states are not part of the Electoral College. Similarly, members of Legislative Councils also do not participate in the election process.
• The value of votes of MPs and MLAs varies based on the population of states they come from.
• It is mandatory for 50 MPs to propose the candidate, followed by another 50 seconding the candidature.
• Polling will be held in the Parliament House and on the premises of the State Legislative Assemblies.
• The election is held by secret ballot. A single transferable vote is used per the system of proportional representation.
• On the ballot paper, there are two columns. The names of candidates are listed in the first column, and the order of preference is listed in the second column.

• The Electoral College has 4,809 electors, including 776 Members of Parliament (MPs) and 4,033 Members of Legislative Assemblies (MLAs).
• The total value of votes will be 10,86,431. To win, a candidate must get at least 5,43,216 votes.
• In the last election in 2017, Ram Nath Kovind of the NDA defeated joint Opposition candidate Meira Kumar. Kovind polled 7,02,000 votes compared with Kumar’s 3,67,000, out of a total of 10,69,358 votes.
• Roughly speaking, the ruling BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has 48 per cent of the votes this time. It is 23 per cent for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA).
• So, the NDA should not have any problem in getting its candidate elected. But the contest will become tight if all non-BJP parties unite (this explains hectic consultations on both sides). Then the opposition will have about 51 per cent of the votes.
• This is unlikely. Some reports say that “independents” such as Andhra Pradesh’s ruling YSRCP and Odisha’s ruling BJD may support the NDA. The BJP’s Tamil Nadu ally, the AIADMK, may also do so.
• The BJP has authorised its party president JP Nadda and Union minister Rajnath Singh to hold consultations with constituents of the NDA and the UPA, besides other political parties, as well as independent members. A consensus candidate is always preferable.

PROBABLE CANDIDATES

The general impression is that the BJP is unlikely to re-nominate Kovind. Rajendra Prasad was the only President to get two full terms. Both camps have not named their candidates yet. But that does not mean we’re short of suggestions.

CRACKS IN OPPOSITION

Cracks have appeared in the opposition camp. The Congress is currently preoccupied with rallying support for its leader Rahul Gandhi, being questioned by the Enforcement Directorate in the National Herald money-laundering case.

Actually, there is no one opposition camp. There is the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA). But that’s mostly the Congress with non-ruling allies like the RJD of Bihar. The Congress rules Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and is a junior partner in states such as Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Tamil Nadu.

West Bengal Chief Minister and TMC leader Mamata Banerjee has met Sharad Pawar, whose party NCP is part of Maharashtra’s ruling coalition MVA, led by the Shiv Sena and also comprising the Congress.

Ms. Mamata Banerjee called upon me at my residence in Delhi today.
We had a detailed discussion on various issues related to our country.@MamataOfficial pic.twitter.com/ACv62oZtqq — Sharad Pawar (@PawarSpeaks) June 14, 2022

Banerjee is trying to bring everyone on a single platform but Congress, while attending consultations driven by her, does not want to be overshadowed by a former Congresswoman. The grand old party is also holding its own meetings.

The Left is not happy with Banerjee’s “unilaterally” organised deliberations. Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP (which is also ruling Punjab) has been a Congress critic and cautious of Banerjee in matters of national politics. On the other hand, Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao of TRS has his own ambitions.

The Congress has asked its leader Mallikarjun Kharge to hold talks with all like-minded parties on the possibility of fielding a joint candidate. Kharge met NCP chief Sharad Pawar at the latter's residence in Mumbai on June 9.

Delhi | All opposition parties want to bring a common candidate and Sonia Gandhi had asked Sharad Pawar, Mamata Banerjee, DMK, and others to bring out unity, we will fight together and will decide on who will go and how to go: Congress leader Mallikarjun Kharge (15.06) pic.twitter.com/rjR0IatAIG — ANI (@ANI) June 15, 2022

Congress president Sonia Gandhi has herself reached out to Opposition leaders, including DMK chief MK Stalin, Pawar, CPM’s Sitaram Yechury.

Banerjee and Telangana CM K Chandrashekar Rao, both non-UPA leaders, have also met leaders of the MVA.

On June 15, Banerjee held a meeting with Opposition leaders in Delhi where no one from the AAP, the TRS and the BJD came despite invitations. Those who attended the meeting convened to prepare a joint strategy included Pawar, PDP’s Mehbooba Mufti, NC’s Omar Abdullah and SP’s Akhilesh Yadav, besides some Congress leaders including Kharge.

Delhi | Opposition leaders' meeting called by TMC leader & West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee ahead of Presidential poll, set to get underway at Constitution Club of India pic.twitter.com/WXQY3NbFWs — ANI (@ANI) June 15, 2022

Looks like a fractured opposition may again end up helping the BJP in an important election. Unless, of course, the mirage of oft-cited total opposition unity finally becomes a reality.